Nike

Nike PESTEL Analysis (2026): the $1.5B tariff squeeze

Run on Nike in mid-2026, PESTEL collapses into a single dominant force. The Political force — US tariffs — is so large (a ~$1.5B FY2026 cost estimate, up from $1B, and a 1.2-point gross-margin hit) that it is driving the entire strategic agenda and cascading straight into the Economic force. Nike books ~95% of its footwear from Vietnam, China, and Cambodia, so a trade shock is not one of six balanced forces — it is the force, and the other five are mostly downstream of it. The framework's value here is not a tidy six-cell grid; it is exposing that Nike's macro environment has one concentrated risk and a sourcing map that took thirty years to build and cannot be rebuilt in one fiscal year. The named diagnostic below — the Nike Tariff Cascade — is what PESTEL adds that a margin bridge does not.