Framework
Decision

Expected Value

Σ probability × outcome

Best for
choosing under uncertainty
Time
15–30 min
Difficulty
Intermediate

Fill in your own Expected Value right here.

Free · no sign-up · saves in your browser · export a PDF

Open the free Expected Value template →Or use the AI canvas
Expected Value diagramSchematic of the Expected Value framework: Σ probability × outcome.
The Expected Value diagram — Σ probability × outcome.
Example

Deciding whether to run a paid ad test with uncertain payoff

Expected value calculation
  1. Outcome A: success (30% × +$40k) = +$12,000
  2. Outcome B: break even (40% × $0) = $0
  3. Outcome C: lose budget (30% × −$10k) = −$3,000
  4. Expected value = +$9,000
  5. Decision: run it — positive EV with manageable downside

Related frameworks

Decision

Cost-Benefit

Monetize costs vs. benefits over time

Decision

Decision Tree

Branching outcomes and probabilities

Decision

Regret Minimization

Choose what you'd regret least at 80

Ready to try it? The Expected Value template is free and needs no account.
Open the free template →
iPhone & iPad

Run the Expected Value on your iPhone

Describe your situation in one sentence and Framework's AI fills in the Expected Value for you — plus 100+ other frameworks, synced with the web app.

Download on theApp StoreFree · syncs with the web app